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Israeli Officials Knew of Hamas Plot but Dismissed It as ‘Conjecture’

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JERUSALEM – The Netanyahu government in Israel is facing internal criticism over the October 7th massacre. News reports indicate that Israeli intelligence officials had advance knowledge of Hamas’ diabolical plot, but they dismissed it as unrealistic.

The stunning revelation comes from various news outlets. The reports point to Israeli officials having advance knowledge of a detailed battle plan for the large-scale terrorist attack, but didn’t think it was possible. This critical failure led to the deadliest attack on Jews since the Holocaust.  

On Oct. 7, Hamas launched its gruesome attack targeting Israeli civilians. While committing countless crimes against humanity, the terrorists murdered 1,200 people and took 240+ hostages. Despite having a detailed 40-page operation plan, named “Jericho Wall,” according to the New York Times Israeli authorities underestimated Hamas’ capabilities, dismissing their scheme.

Jeff Ballabon from the American Center for Law and Justice in Israel said, “Obviously, this is the worst intelligence failure in the history of the state of Israel. It’s one of the worst intelligence failures, it seems, in the history of modern warfare, of humanity or of states. And obviously, there will be an accounting. But right now, Israel seems across the board overwhelmingly (united). Sure, there are political pressures in their voices, but overall, it seems to be united in the understanding that right now there is an existential enemy outside trying to destroy the people of Israel, the state of Israel, the Jews.” 

Erik Prince of the Frontier Resource Group said, “Look, anybody, any objective listener or observer is going to agree that, yeah, it was an intelligence failure that the enemy could plan and organize that many thousands of fighters to breach in 30 different breach points, come through the fence and do that kind of damage. However, yes, intelligence services collect a lot of intelligence and it’s hard to determine what is perfect, an accurate intelligence versus what is conjecture or nonsense.” 

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The attack reportedly mirrored Hamas’ strategic plan. A combination of rocket barrages and drones, aimed at crippling security systems, along with gunmen using diverse transport methods, successfully breached Israeli defenses.

A reminder of Israel’s history of underestimating the threat from Arab neighbors can be found at the Zion Gate in the old city of Jerusalem. A fierce battle took place here when Israel fought to reclaim the city from the Jordanians. It’s one example of Israel’s record of overestimating their own capabilities against their enemies, specifically in both the 1967 and the 1973 wars when the Israelis almost lost their country because they didn’t pay attention to the warning signs that were everywhere. And that should have served as a lesson for the Israelis in this war with Hamas. But unfortunately, they fell prey to the same hubris this time as well.

Erik Prince said, “And so, yes, there might have been indications, warnings a year before. The fact is, we know this because the players involved have said so.”

Analyst Ryan McBeth said, “I had these same operations orders translated, they were done by people who were Syrian, by Egyptians, and by people in the UAE. And every single one of those guys said this. This is Persian. Well, this operations order is the way Persian people talk. So I think a lot of this might have been planned in Iran.”

The aftermath of the attack raises critical concerns in how Israel identifies and reacts to credible threats.

McBeth said, “When you think about it, this seemed like such an off-the-wall attack using hang gliders and so on. Who would have thought of that? Right…. And who wants to be the guy that puts their career on the line and says, ‘Hey, guess what? Hamas is going to attack with hang gliders. Right?'”

Before they spend any effort on deciding who to blame however, Israel needs to win the war.

“It has to go way past that and, you know, control the pressure coming in from the world to create a state governed by the Palestinian Authority, which is no less genocidal, no less evil than Hamas,” Ballabon said. “There needs to be a complete change in how Israel relates to those hostile populations that surround it.”

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